The Near Future
of Creative AI

Version 0.5, 26th of March 2023
All images are 100% generated with Midjourney
All text is 100% human-made by Douwe van der Werf

If as a professional (audio)visual maker you are still in the process of figuring out how Creative Artificial Intelligence will impact you and your industry, keep reading.

Did you expect C-AI to produce high quality creative work so soon? Neither did I. Most creative professionals had always assumed that their work, which requires intuition, taste and an aware human soul, would be the very last to someday be affected by the AI revolution.

Yet here we are in 2023.

In 2022, after the public release of tools like Dall-E 2, Midjourney and Stable Diffusion, visual creatives everywhere soon realised that the invention of AI-generated imagery was going to change their industry in truly profound ways.

What Creative AI (‘C-AI’) asks of us

If there ever was a time to re-evaluate your creative purpose, it is now.

F. Scott Fitzgerald famously wrote:

“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.

One should, for example, be able to see that things are hopeless yet be determined to make them otherwise.”

C-AI forces all creative professionals to consider strange new paradoxes and re-imagine how they work and create in the near future, how they value their work — and ultimately how they value themselves as professionals and sector.

If there’s just one thing I’d like to get across to creative people it would be this: take the current transition into the Age of AI seriously.

Don’t allow yourself to fall too easily into a ‘C-AI is bad’ or ‘C-AI is amazing’ mode of thinking, thereby potentially putting yourself at an unintended disadvantage later on.

C-AI is going to affect you too. I believe that how and to what extent it will, isn’t entirely outside of our sphere of influence.

We all have some important decisions to make.

The rise of AI

Can ‘intelligence’ (the ability to intentionally acquire and apply knowledge and skills) and ‘creativity’ (the ability to bring into existence a new solution, new method or new artistic object or form) no longer be considered as exclusively human superpowers?

I would recommend everybody who is even remotely interested in the general ‘AI revolution’ to watch the presentation below by Tristan Harris, the guy behind Netflix documentary ‘The Social Dilemma’, because to it’s the most insightful thing I’ve come across in regards to AI in general.

The AI ‘revolution’ is likely to be as impactful as humanity’s mastery of fire, the invention of the steam engine, the combustion engine, the personal computer, the internet and the mobile phone.

AI generated ‘oil painting’ of
a primitive man managing a fire.

AI development is exponential

Most IT studies now heavily focus on AI. Global investment in AI has been rising steadily and is expected to rise even more in the coming years. The range and number of AI applications in all industries is growing very rapidly.

There’s now a race towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), the next frontier for AI companies: a non-human intelligence that can do whatever you teach it, from playing chess and creating art, to driving a car and providing therapy to … what won’t it do? Well, it won’t burn out like people do.

Some ‘close to the fire’ argue we’re already close to AGI and perhaps we’ll see Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) in our lifetimes too? Who knows.

In Sam Harris’ TED speech of back in 2017, he wasn’t all that optimistic about the prospect of super intelligence because you know, what does an super intelligent entity do that’s intellectually superior to all human beings.

Will C-AI cost jobs?

Yes — very likely. While many new jobs will emerge, lots of existing jobs will disappear. Sam Altman himself, CEO of OpenAI, has acknowledged this and has argued back in 2021 that Universal Basic Income (UBI) should be an essential part of the global transition into the AI revolution, in order to deal with the impacts of AI to the global job market. Altman has also argued that AI will create enormous wealth that is unlikely to be distributed equally.

While Altman seems generally deeply aware of the potential impacts of AI, both positive and negative, and speaks candidly about it, I find his vision on ‘how we can improve the standard of living for people more than we ever have before’ somewhat utopian, as it echoes the expectations that many people held when personal computing became a thing: “if the computer can do menial repetitive tasks, then humans will have more free time”.

In reality for most people, the computer has only sped up the pace of work and raised employers expectations on workers results. How will C-AI change audiovisual arts and design production in the years ahead?

Will artists and designers get a UBI from AI-companies? Well maybe, but certainly not without a fight and probably not as soon as we’d like.

Shock & Response

Artists and designers across the world felt that slow incoming shock to the core of their creative hearts, when more and better AI-generated images began to trickle into their lives, alongside AI-text, music and generated voices indistinguishable from human ones, just to name a few of the numerous things that C-AI has already produced.

Soon after, we learned that all the outputs of C-AI were based on billions of downloaded images from generations of deceased and living artists.

AI-remix of Magritte’s “The Treachery of Images

Revolution or art heist?

We all realised very soon that C-AI wasn’t some fleeting hype, but that it meant a seismic shift to our industry, career and potentially, livelihoods.

Some people got excited by the limitless creative potential that C-AI would offer to far more people than ever before. Others said loudly, “this is the greatest art heist in history!” and you are probably not the only one if you have held either perspective at some point.

C-AI is inherently disruptive, confusing and paradoxical.

The Resistance

A global activist movement against C-AI emerged quickly. A class action lawsuit soon followed. Collectives of artists, arts unions, copyright organisations in and stock photography companies began asking what ‘fair use’ really means in this new reality, with some arguing that all AI-generated work is stolen.

Copyright holders are now at war with the powerful legal departments of tech titans with very deep pockets and the most sophisticated legal AI systems in existence at their disposal too.

Unsurprisingly and unfortunately, AI technologies evolve a lot faster than regulation can keep up with, while millions of AI generated images, sounds and more have already been sold for profit.

Move fast and break things?

Mark Zuckerberg by now infamously said:

“Move fast and break things. Unless you are breaking stuff, you are not moving fast enough.”

This is how he created the largest social network in history and became one of the youngest billionaires ever. It’s exactly this kind of thinking that Silicon Valley has embraced in their race for global AI supremacy.

The ‘Zuckerberg attitude’ lead to the financial success of Facebook and to lots of serious problems. The company now known as ‘Meta’ has been accused of enabling hate groups, cause massive polarisation, leading teenagers to suicide, the spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories and even breaking democracies and empowering dictatorial regimes.

I can understand why Zuckerberg said he ‘didn’t want to be the arbiter of truth’, but Facebook was simply built and deployed too fast with vastly insufficient oversight and there were serious, real-world consequences.

With deployment of AI into the wild, far more caution is needed as the consequences of AI disasters are potentially far greater than those of Facebook have ever been. Imagine propaganda AI that creates messaging finely tuned to your psychological profile, perhaps even with custom deepfake videos aimed at you. Imagine hacking, spying and warfare AI. The risks of AI in general are real.

Big Tech is not our boss

So is it ok that Big Tech ‘moves fast and breaks things’ in the creative sector?

Let’s remind ourselves and each other that just because Big Tech has a strategy of overwhelming us with loads of extraordinary technologies, it doesn’t mean that whatever they do shall become the general norm that we must all reluctantly accept.

Can authorship be claimed on AI outputs?

Is ‘prompt engineer’ now a legitimate job? Can prompt engineers claim ‘authorship’ of ‘their work’? Well, the US Copyright Office has said ‘no’, which seems a fair judgement that sets a wise legal precedent in my opinion.

But what if you make a number of manual adjustments to the AI-outputs? After how many edits and modifications exactly can you claim your authorship? It is likely that a lot of debate will be held on this in the coming years, as more of us choose to collaborate with the machines.

The meaning of what ‘art’ truly means has since forever been impossible to answer objectively and because of AI, the ever evolving definition of what ‘art’ really is will shift again and find a new balance.

The arts will live on.

What is the end goal of C-AI?

Where are we heading? Well, the direction that C-AI will take will be fundamentally the result of human choices. This is why politicians and legislators must hold people inside the offices and boards of AI companies to account, with tough and fast AI lawmaking that is well-enforced.

Today, a young child can type a prompt and something will be generated that makes the child smile. Meanwhile, freelance concept artists who have carefully developed and honed their drawing skills over several decades, suddenly find themselves in direct competition with ‘creative’ code running on the immense processing power of Big Tech, sometimes with their full names in the prompts.

A journalist writing an article now easily skips calling, negotiating and communicating with an illustrator. They simply prompt an AI to ‘create’ an illustration before the editorial deadline in 30 minutes.

Where will C-AI lead us in the longer term?

Will creative professionals be replaced?

Will there one day be a fully functional general ‘AI creator’ that your current client will work with? Will this ‘AI creator’ deliver exactly what your now former client needs, but faster, better and cheaper than you?

I don’t think that’s unlikely.

Why did humanity develop creative AI? Just because we could? Did it solve an urgent problem for the creative sector? What about the joy of being with an empty canvas, charcoal crayons, pencils and pens?

What’s possible?

While it is tempting to dive deep, far and wide into the rapidly growing range of applications of C-AI, I’m going to just give you a bird’s eye view from March of 2023. There’s a lot more online and whatever examples are used in this article are already outdated but still highly relevant to our general thinking on C-AI.

Let’s take a look a few ways in which AI could be applied in the animation production process of the near future.

Script

  • Large Language Models (LLM’s) such as GPT-4 and all of the many tools based on them are able to ‘understand’ a written request and respond with an answer that is intellectually sound and highly usable. AI can be part of a first brainstorm to summarise and structure meeting notes, generate ideas or compress, stylise and restructure existing texts.

  • I speculate that it probably won’t take too long before AI will be able to write full film scripts nearly independent of human involvement. Human involvement wil remain essential for some time, but as the algorithms keep learning, the quality of the outputs will increase, leading to much larger, more complex, cohesive, nuanced and balanced outputs.

Visual development

Animation Production

  • Stable Diffusion is capable of applying style transfers to still images or sequences. Corridor Crew’s highly contested breakdown on how they used green screen video to create an anime short called ‘Anime Rock, Paper, Scissors’ shows a glimpse what is already possible for 2D animation. AI can be a tool for post-stylisation of animation, tweening frames and drawing visual corrections directly on video.

  • Motion capture suits could some day be taken off the budget sheet because of Wonder Studio and Nvidia’s AI-Driven, Physics-Based Character Animation system could someday even make motion capture actors obsolete.

  • AI can replace one voice with another and voice actors could perhaps be replaced entirely with AI that generates convincing voices.

  • Tools in development such as MusicLM by Google can create complete music from text prompts, such as these examples.

  • A tool like RunwayML, which incorporates a video editor, can do a variety of tasks that one would normally do ‘by hand’ in an editor or compositing program, such as rotoscoping, motion tracking, modifying moving visual elements and more.

  • Even crazier, Runway’s Gen-2 promises to generate animation and video just like Midjourney does today, but for moving images. Perhaps not so far into the future, you can prompt an entire film into existence.

Coding

  • If you’re a technical animator and coding is part of your workflow, GPT-4 understands, creates and modifies code really well. You can ask GPT-4 questions about your code and get clear answers, you can ask it to look for bugs and even solve the issues that GPT-4 finds.

  • I believe it’s likely that GPT-5 will be able to write entire games, plugins or whatever else you ask it to code. Those with deep coding knowledge will always be ahead of others though, as it’s wise to always check the results when using Large Language Models, since they are known to have an error margin of around 1 or 2%, which is quite high. It’s likely that neural networks, as a technology that can’t be read by humans or precisely modified, will always be prone to errors, just like humans. The only thing that the AI tech companies can do, is positively influence the AI by telling it what (not) to do.

Video editing

  • Now that GPT-4 is able to ‘read’ what is seen in images, comprehension of video footage is likely to be a key feature of GPT-5. This might lead to the creation of AI video editors, that are being able to ‘think’ about how to shape a strong narrative through reading the script and source materials directly. However, this is future speculation on my part right now.

  • WiseCut is a first real world example of AI video editing. For now it uses the spoken words to determine how to cut. This might develop in AI that takes every possible piece of information in the image into account.

Creative Business

  • An AI system like Vowel can now listen in on a meeting and summarise what has been discussed. Right after your meeting, you will have a good summary and lists of decisions and to-do’s.

  • Microsoft’s GPT-4 powered AI-assistant, has recently been implemented into the Bing browser and Microsoft Office suite. It is able to provide intelligent assistance in all of these applications, which means less administrative headaches for creative brains generally not in love with legal documents, spreadsheets and calculations.

The list above is nowhere near comprehensive and probably already outdated. If you’re interested in keeping up-to-date on AI tools out there, I’d recommend checking out Futurepedia.

Does C-AI ‘steal’?

I think the answer is ‘yes’ but perhaps in a different way than you might think. It’s complicated.

Picasso famously said “Good artists copy. Great artists steal,” by which he acknowledged that all artists stand on the shoulders of those before them and that every piece of art is a remix of what came before. Yes, AI remixes similarly to how human artists do.

However, can remixing of artwork be considered ‘fair use’ when ‘the artist’ is a server rack in a high security data center of a tech giant that bases its ‘art’ on all online available art pieces?

Some people argue: C-AI ‘takes inspiration’ from other artists, just as living artists do. while some argue that C-AI, like the iron machines of the Industrial Revolution, is simply another part of the unstoppable progress of technology, so it’s best to ‘deal with it and adapt’.

— I agree and disagree with both arguments, in different ways. So many things AI are paradoxical.

Is AI truly ‘creative’?

Yes, I would argue that creativity (the ability to bring into existence a new solution, method or artistic object or form) is what C-AI has proven to posses in a variety of ways.

Like every human artist has been influenced by the works of other artists, so does C-AI ‘create’ new images by recombining the influences of prior work. And because LLM’s are part of the visual AI, C-AI actually ‘understands’ the real world relationships between different concepts, objects and tensions in an image.

While it seems like ‘common sense’ that computer algorithms can’t be truly creative, I invite you to reconsider this.

  • First of all, neural networks in AI-systems mimic the organic structuring of the human brain and in that way C-AI behaves far more freely and randomly associative than we are used to from computers.

  • Secondly, the ‘diffusion’ part in most AI systems adds an element of unpredictability to each output, resulting in unique results each time.

Organic-like structuring of data combined with diffusion and other AI data processing techniques lead to a certain level of synthetic-artistic ‘intuition’ that enable C-AI’s creative capabilities.

Was C-AI ‘just inspired’ by prior work?

No, C-AI does not ‘get inspired’ by billions of images. Inspiration (the process of being mentally stimulated to do or feel something, especially to do something creative) remains exclusively a human thing. An AI system isn’t mentally stimulated in any way as so far, there is no evidence of consciousness or emotion in AI systems.

AI ‘understands’ the world like a person would understand a delicious soup that was only explained to them but not tasted. When C-AI creates beautiful work, it’s only able to do so because it channels the heart, soul and inspiration of human-created work.

C-AI knows how to cook the soup, but doesn’t know its tastes.

Does C-AI ‘Photoshop’ prior art?

It doesn't, because technically, C-AI systems don't ‘cut and paste’. Instead, they create truly unique new artworks based on the design patterns and principles of the artworks in the datasets, that are embedded in neural networks.

This raises a new question: can design patterns and principles be stolen? The legal answer is probably ‘no’, because how would you as a maker technically argue to a judge that your ‘design patterns and principles were stolen’?

You couldn’t.

Does AI steal specific artworks?

Technically, I don’t think that C-AI steals particular artworks in most cases. It only does so when a particular artwork is the only one associated with a certain word in the learning dataset, a problem that is likely to be solved by adding more diffusion to the mix on data poor prompt words.

What I believe that C-AI steals is the inspiration, soulfulness and personality of human made art that are embedded in design patterns and principles. This type of theft might actually be far worse than copying artworks, because it means that anyone can output ‘unique’ works in the style of any particular artist or a combination of them.

C-AI will mimic humans artists better over time as the neural networks keep learning.

While not of the quality as physical paintings by the artist, do these images channel the spirit of Dali?

Should we ‘just adapt’ to C-AI?

Yes — it’s true that as people we must always adapt to changing circumstances such as advancing technology. But like workers living at the start of the Industrial Revolution, do we really have a choice? While there are lots of similarities between the impacts of Industrial Revolution machinery on workers and the systems of C-AI on creative professionals now, I think there is also one distinct difference.

While the invention of the iron machines was purely the result of science and engineering, the enormous datasets that empower visual C-AI, such as LAION, owe their enormous creative power entirely and exclusively to all the artists whose work has been harvested by web crawling bots online.

The machines of Creative AI now selling ‘artworks’ for a few cents apiece, could not have existed at all without having been ‘fed’, ‘loaded’, ‘supplied’ or ‘powered’ directly by generations of original and inspired, painstakingly created human art from both dead and living artists who would often dedicate their heart and soul to their art their entire lives.

It seems very clear to me that Big Tech owes the entire arts and creative sector, not just a little bit, but Big Time and this is why collective action is urgent and essential to secure the future of artists and designers.

Has ‘Big Tech’ colonised the arts and creative industries?

Given the fact that human-created art is the most vital component to enabling AI to generate commercially sold ‘art’, I believe that commercial C-AI is a full-on colonisation (the action of appropriating a place or domain for one's own use) of the global creative sector by the tech sector.

While a lot of AI-related matters remain deeply mysterious to all of us and even the creators of the AI, one thing is very clear: big profits are already being made right now by C-AI companies powered by generations of human crafted art and it has been surprisingly hard to figure out what revenue and profits look like for the largest C-AI players out there.

Tech companies are harvesting creative value for profit at an unprecedented scale

Could this be an art heist that is ‘too big to fail’?

This depends entirely on the success of a collective demand for a fair and responsible C-AI transition powered by activism, legal action and political lobbying in places where it makes a difference.

Not only is C-AI likely to affect the livelihoods of artists because it’s simply impossible to compete with systems trained for tens of thousands of human years, that create exceptional results within minutes for a few cents a piece.

Also, C-AI is sadly is at odds with the simple joy of creative exploration, quietly working from first idea, to sketch to final artwork. This is likely to cause deep, longer term creative endeavours to lose a lot of their purpose, motivation and value.

Why not let the computer do it if it takes so much time? Miyazaki had some harsh words about exactly this.

I suggest: let’s keep pursuing manual creative crafts indefinitely. With the right approach, we can make human created art far more valuable in a response to C-AI.

Tax C-AI now!

Those operating in the AI-space must be held accountable as soon as possible in a language that they will best understand: steep taxation of current, future and perhaps even past revenue on all creative AI outputs, with a tax rate of between 75% and 85% or beyond, on all the outputs of creative AI. Collected taxes must directly support the livelihoods of creative professionals.

I think a tax rate of 75% to 85% is feasible, because a revenue of between 15% and 25% for tech companies is likely to still lead to profitable business for them. Whether this will or won’t happen will be entirely the result of our ability to unify and align our next actions and choices as a sector.

C-AI tax should be enforced as quickly as possible by the European Union and other top level government bodies around the world, with a pure focus on providing UBI to as many creative professionals as possible.

Of course, fair distribution of collected taxes will be inherently challenging for a wide variety of reasons, one being that as far as is known it’s impossible to measure the influences from specific artist’s making it impossible to credit or fairly compensate them.

However, just because fair distribution will be hard to do, this is not a valid reason to not pursue any AI tax rate at all.

AI vs OI?

So we are now in the strange situation of Artificial Intelligence (it) versus Organic Intelligence (us). Or will it be AI + OI?

What will happen next? What should we do?

As the quote from at the start suggests “One should be able to see that things are hopeless yet be determined to make them otherwise”.

Despite the all too often ignored environmental impacts of AI, assuming the tech is probably here to stay and given the fact that there’s no indication that AI tax na UBI are coming any time soon, we must keep finding new ways to express ourselves and to make our art stand out.

It will take some time to accept and get used to, but we will learn to co-create with AI and find a new balance. Let’s make sure that our approach is as responsible as possible to ourselves, each other and the world.

Let’s all keep thinking about what what ‘Responsible Use of Creative AI’ might mean in our professional practice

Equipped with more creative power, choosing who to work for, becomes very important. More literally than ever before, you must now consciously decide to whom you ‘sell your soul’, because it will be human souls that remain to be the defining factor of incredible works of art, now amplified by the power of C-AI.

While large commercial studios will use C-AI as a cost cutting measure, smaller studios and individuals will be able to create richer, longer films with less resources and efforts.

Also, while there will likely be less to earn in the manual crafts of creativity, photography never killed the art of portrait painting and the printing press never killed the art of calligraphy. Real human art will always remain valuable and the value of some handmade, analogue, physical art might even increase as it will be seen as a more authentic form of art. Never stop drawing.

As creative individuals choosing to use C-AI, we will probably shift to a more curating, art-directing, conducting mode of creation, which allows more people than before to focus on bigger story arcs, essential red threads and the overall tone-of-voice of the stories and artworks that we produce.

All that said, let’s be aware that we’re still in the ‘norm-forming’ stage with Creative AI. Making a collective stand for our rights is very important.

Whatever happens, keep telling your truth and doing your thing, because you are a breathing human being with a beautiful soul that truly senses and interacts with the real world. Your story will continue to matter and the world deserves to see, hear and feel it.

What a time to be alive! Stay courageous and keep chasing your dreams…

Want to learn more?

I have a few recommendations:

Two great pieces on general AI:

  • Highly recommended viewing for absolutely everybody with even the slightest interest in AI: “The AI Dilemma”, a one-hour long presentation by Tristan Harris, the guy also responsible for “The Social Dilemma” on Netflix.

  • A well researched and written opinion piece titled “The stupidity of AI”, on the general impacts of AI, by James Brindle for the Guardian.

Two great videos on Creative AI:

All videos are also embedded below.

“The AI dilemma”
by Tristan Harris, 1:07:30

“AI and Image Generation”
by Kirby Ferguson, 22:26

“The Cr[AI]tive Revolution”
by Jonas Tyroller, 1:34:59

Dear reader,

Thank you for making it all the way down here, it’s an honour.

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Groetjes, Douwe.